Our team of experts are back from tasting the embryonic 2023 wines in Bordeaux. So, what do you need to know to invest smartly in the latest en primeur wines?
Our recent blog looked at the key factors to consider when investing in wine futures and pointed to some of the lessons learned from last year’s 2022 campaign. Fundamentally, it boils down to the following:
- Quality
- Supply
- Price
Bordeaux 2023 Quality
The world’s most important wine critics were invited by the chateaux to taste this newest vintage ahead of the main trade tastings hosted by the Union de Grands Crus de Bordeaux, 22 - 25th April 2024. The first indicators are this is a good vintage, but not a 'great'. So, identifying the top quality wines will be key for smart investing.
As usual, James Suckling is the first of the key critics to set out his opinion on the quality of Bordeaux 2023 wines. In his view they are “some of the brightest and liveliest red Bordeaux he has tasted in years”.
| Wine | Score | Appellation | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canon | 99 - 100 | St Emilion | St Emilion Premier Grand Cru Classe B |
| Le Pin | 99 - 100 | Pomerol | Unclassified |
| Margaux | 99 - 100 | Margaux | First Growth, 1855 Classification |
| Montrose | 99 - 100 | St Estèphe | Second Growth, 1855 Classification |
| Pavie | 99 - 100 | St Emilion | St Emilion Premier Grand Cru Classe A |
| Petrus | 99 - 100 | Pomerol | Unclassified |
Source: Liv-ex.com, April 2024
What factors influenced Bordeaux 2023 quality and yield?
The key variables that give each vintage its qualitative characteristics come down to temperatures, rainfall, humidity and exposure to destructive events such as hail, fire, mildew and pest through the growing season. These factors determine yield and quality. Cellar management and the winemaker will have the final say with potential adjustments to the constituent grape varietals in the blend in line with each Chateau’s protocol.
How did climate shape Bordeaux 2023 wines?
Temperatures in 2023 moved back to around the 10-year average following the more extreme 2022, which was one of the hottest vintages on record. Temperatures that year exceeded 40 degrees Centigrade in June and above 32 degrees for around a third of the growing season in some areas of Bordeaux. In 2023, whilst it was hot, the level of drought was not as extreme and average temperatures in July and August were around 21 degrees.
Temperature by Prime vintages compared with 2023
| Month/vintage | 2009 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 10-year average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
July | 20.7 | 21.7 | 22.1 | 20.8 | 22.5 | 23.0 | 21.6 | 23.4 | 21.1 | 21.6 |
Aug | 21.4 | 20 | 21 | 21.7 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 21.8 | 24.1 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| Apr – Sep. total | 18 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 17.9 | 19 | 18.2 | 18.9 | 19.8 | 19.4 | 18.5 |
Source: Liv-ex.com / Gavin Quinney April 2024. Temperature measured in degrees C.
Rainfall by Prime Vintages compared with 2023
| Month/vintage | 2009 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 10-year average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
July | 55 | 20 | 22 | 5 | 35 | 44 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 30 |
Aug | 37 | 17 | 103 | 14 | 23 | 29 | 59 | 27 | 49 | 42 |
| Apr – Sep. total | 420 | 278 | 353 | 418 | 443 | 399 | 560 | 278 | 428 | 429 |
Source: Liv-ex.com / Gavin Quinney April 2024. Rainfall measured in mm.
Yield and 2023 investment wine supply
2023 is the third consecutive smaller vintage with production of 384million litres across Bordeaux. This is 20% lower than the 10-year average, reflecting the impact of the changing climate.
Good supply is expressed as 40 hectolitres /100 litres per hectare (hl/ha). Low supply is yield lower than 36hl/ha. 2023’s 37hl/ha is just ahead of being classed as a low supply vintage. The impact of rainfall and mildew varied across the appellations with some of the key chateaux for investment wines still producing greater than average supply.
Bordeaux 2023 yields by appellation
| Bordeaux appellation | 5-year average 2018 - 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Margaux | 39.7 | 37.7 | 31.3 | 38.6 |
Medoc & Graves | 40.2 | 40.0 | 34.5 | 33.6 |
| Pauillac | 39.6 | 47.1 | 34.8 | 35.1 |
| Pessac Leognan | 38.5 | 38.1 | 35.7 | 33.2 |
| Pomerol | 36.1 | 45.2 | 32.3 | 28.9 |
| Sauternes & Barsac | 14.2 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 3.5 |
| St Emilion, Pomerol, Fronsac | 39.3 | 42.6 | 42.2 | 30.5 |
| St Julien | 40.1 | 50.3 | 31.5 | 40.7 |
Source: Liv-ex.com / Gavin Quinney April 2024. Yield by hl/ha.
Added to yield one now needs to consider the growing trend in recent years of the producers reducing the volume of wine they make available for sale en primeur. First Growths Latour famously removed its wine from the en primeur program in 2012, and Mouton Rothschild announced its reducing supply via this channel in 2015, preferring to issue ‘library releases’ going forward of in-bottle wines at higher values.
Liv-ex has been monitoring the level of supply released by the chateaux over recent vintages and has revealed a growing reduction of in-barrel allocations being offered at en primeur year-on-year.
Supply: reduction of en primeur allocations
| Vintage campaign | Average reduction |
|---|---|
2021 | 30% |
2020 | 15-20% |
| 2019 | 23% |
| 2018 | 24% |
| 2017 | 29% |
Source: Liv-ex Bordeaux 2023 Report, April 2024.
Price - What kind of returns can you get from investing in En Primeurs?
The rationale for investing in En Primeur is two-fold, firstly to secure rare wine, and secondly price. Historically Bordeaux used to price wines sold ‘in-barrel’ at a discount to anticipated future in-bottle prices to a small number of loyal customers happy to buy the wines very young.
Pricing has evolved with market demand in the last decade and the en primeur discount has either disappeared in most cases or become marginal. The 2023 vintage is also being released into a market weakened by the ongoing correction, with average prices of top Bordeaux down around 13% since the 2022 vintage was released last year.
Identifying those wines with the potential for growth from release prices is key for investors and their advisors. When priced right investors can do very well from en primeur investments.
Top 5 Bordeaux En Primeur performers
| Label | Appellation | % growth since release |
|---|---|---|
| Petrus | Pomerol | 82% |
| Lafleur | Pomerol | 67% |
| Carruades de Lafite | Pauillac | 22.9% |
| Le Pin | Pomerol | 20.8% |
| Beychevelle | St Julien | 20.3% |
Source: Liv-ex Bordeaux 2023 Report, April 2024.
Can the wine critics’ scores influence En Primeur prices?
More than any other region, the scores of the most influential critics guide markets. This may be due to the history of more choice in investment wines and the larger supply generally of them. Also, the tradition of quality scores is perhaps more firmly set with Bordeaux than any other region and there are simply more critics rating the region’s great wines.
Our view on investing in Bordeaux 2023 En Primeur wines
Our team of fine wine experts attended the 2023 tastings in Bordeaux across the key Left and Right Bank estates. The collective view at this early stage is that the 2023 wines are varied in style with outstanding producers delivering true expressions of individual terroirs.
“Those wines impressing most displayed layers of complexity between the fruit and oak influence imposed by winemakers and are superb. Stand-out wines on the Left Bank were Chateaux Montrose and Pontet-Canet both achieving excellent concentration, structure and complexity."
This vintage is probably the most price-sensitive ever. Whilst a more detailed review of long-term pricing does reveal that Bordeaux en primeur is never really a ‘cheap option’, if the chateaux get it right; the whole supply chain, from producer to collector, is happy.
Recent campaigns have left some merchants asking whether en primeur is a viable option. With older, bottled wines offering better value than high-priced new wines. In 2024 increased costs of storage and debt, may also reduce the volume merchants will buy at this stage. This means negociants could be left with higher stock levels and a resultant supply chain overhang if the pricing for 2023 wines fails to engage the market sufficiently.
As a consequence, the fine wine trade is expecting to see discounts of up to 30% on 2022 en primeur prices for the 2023 wines. Will the chateaux, courtiers and negociants choose to deliver at this level? We will know soon enough with the first wines expected to hit the secondary market in early May.
We will be providing more details on our team's view on the Bordeaux 2023 tastings, the key critics' quality scores and the allocations once they are released to the market. Register for details on the 2023 En Primeur allocations and find out more about the benefits and risks of investing in Bordeaux En Primeurs by speaking to our expert team on 0203 384 2262.