War is creating volatility in global markets and conditions set to fuel inflation, how is fine wine responding?
All the world’s major stock markets have fallen since the US and Israel commenced their assault on Iran in late February 2026. Oil soared from around US$70 a barrel to sit at circa US$105 on the 20th March.
Stock market falls during the Iran War
| Market / Index | Start of war to 20.03.26 | 1 month | 2026 | 2025 |
| FTSE AIM 100 | -12.6% | -12.2% | -7.6% | 5.5% |
| FTSE AIM All Share | -11.4% | -11.0% | -5.2% | 6.4% |
| Swiss Market Index | -11.1% | -10.1% | -6.2% | 14.5% |
| DAX (Germany) | -9.6% | -9.5% | -6.7% | 23.0% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | -9.3% | -9.2% | -4.0% | 9.0% |
| CAC40 (Paris) | -8.9% | -8.2% | -4.1% | 10.4% |
| S&PBSE100 (Mumbai) | -8.7% | -9.8% | -11.7% | 9.1% |
| FTSE All Share | -7.8% | -6.1% | 0.8% | 19.8% |
| FTSE 100 | -7.6% | -5.7% | 1.5% | 21.5% |
| Dow Jones | -6.0% | -7.3% | -4.3% | 13.0% |
| Hang Seng (HK) | -5.1% | -4.3% | -1.4% | 27.8% |
| S & P 500 | -4.0% | -4.4% | -3.5% | 16.4% |
| SSE Composite (Shanghai) | -3.8% | -1.9% | 1.0% | 18.4% |
| Nasdaq 100 | -2.4% | -2.6% | -3.5% | 20.2% |
Source: Share Scope, Interactive Investor 20.03.26 at 14:43
How has fine wine performed since the Iran war began
In February 2026, the fine wine market recorded a continuance of the stable growth being sustained since September 2025. The Liv-ex 100 benchmark recorded its sixth consecutive monthly rise and has gained 3.9% since September 2025.
The data published in early March reviews performance at 28th February 2026 and it is important to remember that the fine wine market is in the relatively early stages of recovery from a sector-wide, three-year correction since October 2022 to September 2025. Consequently, the figures at one year and beyond are still showing a negative performance but we are now in the sixth consecutive month of price growth.
Fine Wine Performance
| Liv-ex index | February 2026 | 2026 YTD | 1 year to 28.02.26 |
| Liv-ex 100 | 0.5% | 0.6% | -0.7% |
| Liv-ex 1000 | 0.0% | 0.4% | -2.2% |
| Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 | 0.2% | 0.5% | -2.5% |
| Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 | 0.2% | 0.5% | -3.9% |
| Liv-ex Burgundy 150 | -0.3% | 0.2% | -1.9% |
| Liv-ex Champagne 50 | 0.6% | 1.4% | -0.7% |
| Liv-ex Italy 100 | 0.2% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
| Liv-ex Rhone 100 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% |
| Liv-ex California 50 | 0.1% | -0.2% | -4.9% |
| Liv-ex Rest of the World 60 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| Liv-ex Investables | 0.4% | 1.5% | -3.5% |
Source Liv-ex.com 24.03.2026 (data at 28.02.2026)
Individual top performing investment wines are delivering double-digit growth in short-term periods such as a month, for example, Chateau La Fleur-Petrus 2022 recorded a 31.3% rise in its price in February 2026. It’s important to remember that fine wine generally delivers stable growth over the long term rather than rapid rises in short term periods. Where wines are in very short supply, there can be some degree of volatility, but this is rare.
Over one year and beyond certain wines are delivering sustained growth, despite the overall trend of an emerging sector recovery of more modest proportions. Selection is key and this must be based on good market analysis.
Top performing wines in 1 year
| Wine | Growth | Region |
| Chateau Les Carmes Haut Brion 2013 | 43.9% | Bordeaux |
| Chateau Lafleur 2016 | 32.7% | Bordeaux |
| Chateau La Conseillante 2013 | 31.0% | Bordeaux |
| Chateau Rayas, CNDP 2012 | 27.9% | Rhone |
| Chateau Beaucastel CNDP 2022 | 27.3% | Rhone |
Source: Liv-ex.com, data at 28.02.2026
Liv-ex revealed in its March 2026 Report to merchant members that 62% of trade on the exchange in Q1 to date had been instigated by buyers and that ‘ buyer-triggered’ transactions were at the highest level since Q1 2024. February 2026 had been the third strongest month since the introduction of Trump’s tariffs in March 2025 and 20% above the Q2 – Q3 2025 average.
Over the six months since September 2025 Liv-ex Burgundy and Rhone benchmarks have gained the most ground, up 2% and 3.3% respectively. Strong demand for Bordeaux First Growths in 2026 is at its highest level since March 2022 when the market was still on the rise fuelled by high inflation in response to the early stages of the Ukraine War.
Fine wine market data explained
Trusted fine wine market performance data is sourced from Liv-ex.com which acts as a global stock exchange for fine wine. This data is extracted from trading information of the 620 global merchant members buying and selling fine wine in this secondary market. Liv-ex was established in 1999 and provides transparency, market efficiency and liquidity, and the most important source of analytical data and information for market practitioners and their clients who buy, collect and invest in fine wine.
The key benchmarks are the Liv-ex 100 and Liv-ex 1000 indices which, as their names suggest, track the most important and traded 100 and 1000 fine wines in the secondary market. Liv-ex also produces regional and other nuanced benchmarks to provide valuable data on trends in the top wines of Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, Rhone, Italy, California, Spain and a very small number of wines from a few other regions. These are updated monthly with current bid and offer and transaction prices available to Liv-ex members 24 / 7.
The fine wine market in the Iran War
A survey undertaken by Liv-ex of its members on the state of the fine wine market was published at an industry event in early March 2026. The outcome revealed a more positive outlook to the market in 2026 than at the same point in 2025 with an expected growth forecast of 2.1% in the next 12 months compared to an expected decline of -1.9% in the 2025 prediction.
Liv-ex Founder, James Miles, stated that the sector had undergone a “classic inventory cycle” and that the market “is now doing what markets do and correcting those inbalances”. In his view, indicators point to a current recovery in wine prices with key benchmarks reporting six months of consecutive growth.
Drivers of some of the market status are the return of Asian buyers to the market with Chinese imports rising for the first time in nearly ten years in 2026 and a consistent increase in the top-end trade in Burgundy from the Hong Kong market. The tentative return of US buyers is also key.
Miles concludes that “In my view, secondary market prices have already bottomed, particularly for older vintages, which are being consumed and are currently in short supply. The primary market for younger wines will take a little longer but rising back vintages' prices will be supported, and the adjustment is well underway."
Our view on the impact of the Iran war on fine wine so far
The fine wine market started 2026 optimistically following a more positive final quarter of 2025 and this has continued as Q1 rolls out. Significantly, no-one planned for another war with such immediate, highly impactful consequences for global economies.
It’s early days and one of the key benefits of fine wine is its stability and ability to act as a 'buffer' to volatility in financial markets. There could be a lag of course, but notably fine wine prices are at the low end of the growth cycle. If this war is prolonged the appeal of a stable, low-risk asset, priced for value with finite supply, could add further boost to the market recovery this year.
For more information contact our expert team on 0203 384 2262 and see our latest market reports.